After bolting higher Wednesday and then gaining again yesterday, the 30-year average is back to within a basis point of the 20-year high it set last week.
Today’s National Mortgage Rate Averages
Though the 30-year average dipped from last week’s 20-year peak of 7.55%, dropping as far as 7.22% this past Tuesday, the flagship average has since roared back. Adding another seven basis points yesterday after a quarter-point surge Wednesday, the average is now back to 7.54%.
Rates on 15-year loans are also soundly up, climbing another tenth of a point Thursday to break through the 7% threshold. Registering at 7.03%, the 15-year average has recorded its most expensive level since 2007.
The recent story is similar for Jumbo 30-year rates, which have climbed an eighth of a percentage point two days in a row. The average is now up to 6.27%, a level not seen since June 2010.
Refinancing rates on 30-year loans climbed a more dramatic 15 basis points, while the Jumbo 30-year refi average climbed an eighth of a percentage point like new purchase rates. Meanwhile, the 15-year refi average actually declined, but by a minor three basis points. Thursday’s cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan was up to 50 points higher than new purchase rates.
After a historical rate plunge in summer 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year, with the 30-year average hitting a mid-June peak almost 3.5 percentage points above its August 2021 floor of 2.89%. But September’s two-week surge dramatically outdid this summer’s high, with the 30-year average spiking 1.27 percentage points to reach 1.04 percentage points higher than June’s peak.
The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.
Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.
Lowest Mortgage Rates by State
The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders’ varying risk management strategies.
What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?
Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.
Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.
Since June, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. Identical sizable reductions occurred monthly through the summer and are being accelerated in September. This is on top of its plan to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.
The Fed’s rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place November 1-2.
Methodology
The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.
For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.